The AO, shown above, has just in the past few days surged positive. The heavier precipitation is more likely to form east of Kansas City during La Niña years, but again, this is just an influence on the overall weather pattern.Īrctic Oscillation (AO) & North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): This winter is going to have an influence from La Niña, and for KC, this more often is seen in the precipitation patterns. La Niña, which is the colder phase of The El Niño Southern Oscillation Index, or ENSO, is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific waters. There are other pieces to the big atmospheric puzzle that are influencing this pattern. Storm systems in October were strong, and yet they produced more rain than snow, even in North Dakota. Denver, Colorado, has already set their record for the latest first measurable snow, and they are still waiting for that first 0.1 inches. Kansas City has not dropped below 20 degrees yet, and we are still waiting for our first measurable snow. We will learn a lot more in the coming weeks, but for now, let's make some conclusions. The new LRC was still evolving as we made this initial winter forecast. Most importantly, the pattern is cycling, and a new cycle length develops, becomes established, and cycles over and over again until the next fall.If you are near an anchor ridge, your region is more likely to be dry and a bit warmer. The anchor troughs are where storm systems are more likely to be stronger and more frequent, and the anchor ridges are where storm systems will be weaker and less frequent. Anchor troughs and ridges become established in the river of air cycling through above us, around 15,000 to 30,000 feet up.A unique pattern sets up each fall a pattern that has never happened before.The LRC is the centerpiece of this huge and complex atmospheric puzzle. There are a lot of pieces in the complex atmospheric puzzle that we have in our weather forecasting toolbox. Look at how well we did last year with the winter forecast. The KSHB bloggers named this cycling pattern the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or the LRC, around 20 years ago after they had noticed how incredibly accurate the predictions were becoming. We use a weather forecasting technique that taps into the knowledge of the cycling patterns of the Northern Hemisphere. But, what do these early signs mean for this winter? The pattern we will have next spring is directly related to the pattern we have developing now. One prediction we are making this early, using hints from what already started happening in October, is for 100 or more tornadoes to happen in the state of Kansas in 2022 (Kansas averages close to 90 tornadoes/year). Nearly two-thirds of all of the world's tornadoes happen in this region. There are more tornadoes east of the Rocky Mountains between Colorado and the east coast, than anywhere else in the world. When these two air masses collide, violent weather often results. Air will come over the Rocky Mountains and as it moves out over the plains states, it will then bump into the warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. And, we are also due north of a huge body of warm water known as the Gulf of Mexico. Kansas City is not too far from a huge north/south mountain chain known as the Rocky Mountains. The biggest reason is because of where we live. We already know that Kansas City is one the most difficult places in the world to predict the weather. Will the winter be cold and snowy, warm and dry, or somewhere in between? At the same time, we are still waiting for our first true cold blast of the season! Some winter forecast signs are pointing in the snowy direction.
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